It looks like Apple has more of an incentive for keeping the iPhone locked than previously expected. Reports by both Marketwatch and Fortune are claiming that the unlocking of iPhones may be costing Apple as much as $300 million in future kickbacks from wireless carriers.

Analysts believe that of the 1.7 million iPhones not accounted for by AT&T activations only 300,000 and 400,000 were sold in Europe. That leaves over a million iPhones that have either been unlocked or haven’t been activated, a number, accounting for as much as one-quarter of the company’s total iPhone sales to date — a number one analyst called “astounding.”

Keep in mind that Apple makes money through their revenue-sharing deal with AT&T for every iPhone contract signed to their network over time. According to Bernstein Research’s Apple specialist Toni Sacconaghi, Apple makes from $300,000 to $400,000 for every million iPhones. That means that’s 300,000 ot $400,000 that Apple won’t be getting from locked iPhones.

Also, not only will Apple make less money with high unlocking rates, but it will also become more difficult to make deals with iPhone carriers overseas. He notes that Apple’s goal of 10 million iPhones sold by the end of 2008 has become more unlikely.

via http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/01/28/apples-300-million-gray-market-dilemma/?source=yahoo_quote

“In order to achieve this target,” he writes, “we expect Apple will have to lower the iPhone’s price, introduce new (likely lower-end) models, and/or forego revenue-sharing in certain geographies, all of which would compromise the iPhone’s economics.”